UGC Monthly Market Update | April 2024

Join UGC’s Head of Research / Co-Portfolio Manager, Huw Davies, as he takes a deep dive into the latest financial market trends and conditions for the US and Australia, as well as providing an in-depth analysis of the stock markets.

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KEY POINTS:

MARKET OVERVIEW – US

  • Stocks Trading Above Their 200-Day Moving Average Remain Strong.
  • The Pullback Is In-line With Recent Pullbacks.
  • Fear and Greed Neutral.
  • Volatility Surge – VIX jumps to highest level since October.

MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW – US

  • Consumer prices rose 3.5% from a year ago in March, more than expected.
  • Fading confidence in rate cuts.

MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW – AUSTRALIA

  • Wages growth never increased as much in Australia as it did in the US. High US wages growth is keeping US services inflation elevated.

SUMMARY

  1. Fear and Greed relatively neutral as markets cool off.
  2. Stocks are holding up relatively well.
  3. Spike in Volatility following Iranian attack on Israel, a situation we are monitoring actively, as it effects oil prices and subsequently global financial market risks.
  4. US CPI March print higher than expected, pushing back expectations on rate cuts to September. If this narrative continues in the months ahead, we may see no rate cuts at all in the US.
  5. In Australia. The unemployment rate is expected to lift as labour demand has slowed, therefore, softer wages growth in 2024 will see a softening in services inflation.


UGC General Advice Past Performance Warning

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