UGC Monthly Market Update | February 2024
Welcome to the UGC’s Monthly Market Update for February 2024.
Join UGC’s CEO & Chief Investment Officer, Joel Hewish, as he takes a deep dive into the latest financial market trends and conditions for the US and Australia, as well as providing an in-depth analysis of the stock markets.
Don’t miss out, CLICK HERE to get the latest video education from UGC.
UGC INVESTMENT PHILOSOPHY
- S&P 500 Share Price Index V’s Earnings Per Share
- AMZN – Share Price V’s Earnings Expectations
- RMD – Share Price V’s Earnings Expectations
- Theoretical Value Creation of a Growth Stock
MARKET OVERVIEW – US
- Earnings Estimates Driving S&P 500 Gains
- S&P 500 Revenue & Earnings Reports for Q4 ‘23
UGC PLATINUM ALPHA FUNDAMENTALS
- Revenue & Earnings Growth Metrics – Including and Excluding Outliers – as 31 January 2024
MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW – US
- Soft Landing – Still the base case but “no landing” on the rise
- US CPI Actual V’s Forecast
- Rate Cut Expectations & CPI
- S&P 500 Performance after Rate Cuts
MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW – AUSTRALIA
- Australian Inflation is Cooling
SUMMARY
1. S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 hit new all-time highs. Nasdaq Composite very close also. Russell 2000 and other mid and small cap indexes in Bear Market territory but improving.
2. Recessions in UK and Japan hardly noticed in their stock markets as they trade near or at all-time highs.
3. Market breadth improved in November and December but has waned again in January. However, small and mid cap stocks holding up well in past week or so.
4. Price action in growth stocks significantly improved. Inflation, interest rates, earnings and valuations (ex. Mega Caps) now in favour of growth stocks, unlike 2021 to early 2023.
5. Major indexes stretched to upside, correction or rotation needed to resolve overbought conditions. Long term conditions positive but still wary of a pullback in near term.
