UGC MONTHLY MARKET UPDATE | SEPTEMBER 2023
Welcome to the UGC’s Monthly Market Update for September 2023.
Join UGC’s CEO & Chief Investment Officer, Joel Hewish, as he takes a deep dive into the latest financial market trends and conditions for the US and Australia, as well as providing an in-depth analysis of the stock markets.
Don’t miss out, CLICK HERE to get the latest video education from UGC.
KEY POINTS:
MARKET OVERVIEW – US
- September is historically the worst month for U.S. Stocks
- Fund Manager Survey (FMS) Sentiment for September
- Cash allocation up slightly MoM to 4.9%, but below 5% buy signal
- Stocks Trading Above 200 Day Moving Average: Nasdaq & S&P 500
MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW – US
- Goldman Sachs Reduces 12-Month U.S. Recession Probabilities to 15%
- Conviction Fed is done hiking policy rate
- Historical Performance of S&P 500 After Fed’s Last Rate Hike
MARKET OVERVIEW – AUS
- Australia’s Full Year Earnings Season
MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW – AUS
- The Australian economy is still growing but its slowing and getting tougher for households.
SUMMARY
- Economic outlook is murky at best and risks are evenly balanced. Recession is possible but odds probably favour a soft landing and no recession or no landing and a muddle through over the next 12 months.
- Interest rates are very close to peaking or possibly have peaked. If there is no recession in the US, US equity market performance is usually quite strong following the last rate hike.
- Breadth continues to be weak and is currently deteriorating. This needs to improve before our strategies will start to see strong sustained outperformance.
- Long term trends remain positive, but seasonal weakness is leading to a corrective phase that typically last until mid-October. We’re cautiously optimistic this corrective phase is a buyable correction, but it’s possible we’ll have to re-apply more hedging before the buying opportunity presents in a month’s time.
